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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Former poker champion Annie Duke explains how to make better decisions when outcomes depend partly on luck and essential facts remain unknown. She argues that people often judge a choice by whether it worked, confusing a good process with a fortunate result. Using poker, business, sports, and everyday examples, Duke shows how to estimate probabilities, update beliefs, seek dissenting views, and separate identity from being right. The book offers a practical framework for thinking in bets: treating beliefs as provisional wagers and improving judgment through honest feedback rather than certainty, hindsight, or outcome bias.

Publisher: Portfolio/Penguin
Publication date: 2019
Format: Print edition
Pages: 276
ISBN: 9780735216358

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Interview with the Author

7 available interview links

1. The Stacking Benjamins Show — Thinking in Bets: Annie Duke on Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts - Greatest Hits! (SB1837)Checked